Ready for invasion. CIT analyzes Russian troops buildup near the Ukraine's border

At the time of our previous piece, the only new unit documented near the border was the 4th Tank Division. Now it has been joined by at least other units of the 1st Tank Army as well as elements of the 49th and 58th armies of the Souther Military District. This suggests a troop concentration roughly on par with this year's spring.

It should be noted that, as far as we can infer from the frequency of videos and from satellite data, the troop transfer is going relatively slower than during the previous crisis. However, if this pace continues to January, and also if the 41st Army personnel is transferred to Yelnya to its vehicles (for example, by air), then the total number of Russian troops near the border and in Crimea would be significantly higher than the April figures.

Anyhow, we concur with the intelligence assessments that the troops would be ready to a possible operation in Ukrainian government-controlled territory at the least no earlier than the beginning of next year.

We also do not believe that what Bloomberg says is the largest call-up of reservists since Soviet times is a sign of preparing to occupy large parts of Ukraine. Bloomberg's sources most likely mean the BARS Battle Army Reserve exercises which have already been conducted in the Southern Military District and started in the Western military district on November 22.

In fact, the BARS reserve program (also known as «mobilization personnel reserve») is not a reinforcement of existing troops, as would be the case during a regular mobilization, but a new territorial defense structure which is currently being set up on a contract basis. Despite the assessment of US intelligence sources, it would appear more logical to use military police and National Guard troops as an occupying force; however, we have not observed large-scale movements of those units.

In any case, we shall continue to monitor the situation with Russian troops amassing at the Ukrainian border and invite you to send the evidence you encounter to our e-mail address [email protected] or to @leviev on Telegram.