ISW: Putin prepares new major offensive, hopes to regain initiative

Vladimir Putin hopes to regain the initiative in the Ukraine War and prepares a new offensive that may begin as early as February or March 2023, the US based Institute for the Study of War says.

The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action — most likely in Luhansk Oblast — in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes, the ISW says.

Recent limited Russian ground attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region may be intended to disperse Ukrainian forces and set conditions for an offensive in Luhansk, the experts believe.

Bloomberg reported of a potential new offensive in February or March earlier, citing sources close to the Kremlin. “Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and its allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks,” Bloomberg said.

Putin remains convinced that Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties will allow it to prevail despite the failings so far, Bloomberg’s sources report. A new round of mobilisation is possible as soon as this spring, they say, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war.

The US President Joe Biden announced on 25 January that the States would provide 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the same day that the allied countries would provide Ukraine with a total of 112 Leopard 2 tanks. Kyiv will start receiving those in three months.