The fall of Bakhmut, Ukrainian sabotage group enters Russia’s Belgorod region. What happened on the front line on May 22?

Even if Bakhmut has come under the complete control of Russian forces, in light of Prigozhin's statement about the withdrawal of Wagner PMC units to the rear for rest and retraining since May 25, the further actions of the Russian command in this direction are unclear.

If Prigozhin’s claims are to be believed, there will be no Wagner PMC mercenaries on the line of contact on June 1 – all of them will leave for regrouping, re-equipping and additional training, scheduled for two months. According to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, the number of Wagner mercenaries storming Bakhmut in March 2023, was 6,000 people, and another 20-30 thousand were new recruits.

Even taking into account the losses, this means that the Russian command will lose at least several brigades in the Bakhmut direction, which must be promptly replaced.

It is still unclear how exactly the Wagner PMC will prepare the defensive lines in Bakhmut and organize the process of passing the city under the control of regular units of the Russian Armed Forces. ISW analysts believe that it will not work without losses. They remind us that the AFU can still conduct effective artillery shelling of the destroyed city. In such a situation, it is extremely difficult to rotate personnel, given the poor coordination between the mercenaries and Russian Defense Ministry units.

Prigozhin did not miss a chance to mock Russia Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on his birthday. Prigozhin sent Shoigu a congratulatory letter referring to him as “the president of the Russian Geographical Society, a Knight of the Order of Malta” and describing him as a man who combines “the abilities of a refined aesthete, graphic artist, woodcarver, hunter, hockey fan, and a caring father and father-in-law.” There is not a word about the minister's military capabilities in Prigozhin's letter.