Dreaming of dictatorship: Kremlin-friendly oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili attempts to take Georgia off the path to Europe

In addition to refusing to join the international sanctions regime, the government in Tbilisi also frequently blocked the entry of Russian opposition figures attempting to enter Georgia. Then, in the spring of 2023, Georgian Dream made its first attempt to pass a law on “foreign agents,” which the country’s citizens quickly dubbed the “Russian law” due to its resemblance to similar legislation passed by Moscow in 2012. After massive protests, the parliament postponed the bill without passing it in the second reading.

However, Tbilisi’s relations with Moscow continued to improve. In May 2023, the countries restored direct flights, which had been suspended by Moscow in 2019 after the aforementioned “Gavrilov’s Night.” Aside from the flights, Russia also introduced a three-month visa-free regime for Georgian citizens.

At the same time, efforts to bring Georgia closer to the European Union intensified. In Mar 2022, Georgia applied for EU membership, along with Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia initially received confirmation of its “European perspective” — the possibility of candidate status if it met several conditions set out by the European Commission. By the end of 2023, despite criticism over its compliance with the EU’s requirements, Georgia officially became an EU candidate. “They may not be a pro-Western government, but, ironically, they are the most pro-Western government we’ve ever had,” Gobronidze says. “They didn’t want this, but it happened.”

The “dream” of retaining a parliamentary majority

Shortly after Georgia obtained EU candidate status, Bidzina Ivanishvili returned to politics once again — this time as honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party. The position of honorary chairman now had official functions: he was declared the party’s chief political advisor, with the right to convene party council meetings and even propose a candidate for the post of prime minister.

Ivanishvili’s return led to further reshuffling in both the party and the government. Prime Minister Garibashvili and party chairman Irakli Kobakhidze switched positions.

For a while at least, the issue of Georgia’s EU candidate status dominated public discourse. “Almost everyone forgot the episode [with the attempted adoption of the ‘foreign agents’ law in 2023], as the candidate status overshadowed it. It was such a big success,” says Paata Zakareishvili. However, in spring 2024, Georgian Dream reintroduced the “foreign agents” bill to parliament.

Zakareishvili believes the bill’s return may be linked to internal political struggles within Georgian Dream: “My assumption is that Kobakhidze convinced Ivanishvili that last year’s failure [to pass the bill] was a disgrace. If we go into the elections like this, everyone will point out that we’re weak and gave in. In Georgian, Caucasian, and possibly even Russian mentality, defeat or a step back is seen as shameful.”

Following prolonged protests against the “Russian law,” on Apr. 29, a mass rally supporting the bill was held in Tbilisi, reportedly attracting 100,000 people, with Bidzina Ivanishvili making an in-person appearance and giving a speech. Just two weeks later, the “Russian law” was passed in its third reading. Following the adoption of the controversial bill, the process of Georgia’s accession to the European Union was halted.

Zakareishvili believes that reviving the “foreign agents” law was a mistake by Georgian Dream. The party sought to weaken civil society, assuming there would be neither mass protests nor a strong reaction from the West due to the recently granted EU candidate status. The party must have thought that, “If they gave us candidate status today, they won’t take it away tomorrow, right?” But once the bill was reintroduced, the authorities couldn’t back down, Zakareishvili explains.