Weekly Ukraine war summary: “dragon’s teeth” in the Russian rear, North Korean soldiers in Russia, Australia to supply Abrams to the AFU

The AFU hit a training range and an oil depot in Rovenky in the occupied Luhansk Region (the oil depot had come under attack in May) and a munitions depot in Russia’s Penza Region (the munitions reportedly did not detonate). Shelling of Russia’s Belgorod Region continued: eight people were wounded during one of the attacks on Shebekino, and two territorial defense fighters were injured in the village of Petrovka. The Belgorod Region has suffered the most civilian casualties in the border regions since the start of the full-scale war, according to Russian ombudsman Tatiana Moskalkova, who counted 398 dead and 1,157 wounded civilians.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, have updated the Russian side's war casualty count based on open-source reports. A total of 74,014 deaths have been verified, with 2,010 names added to the list between Oct. 4 and Oct. 18, 2024. Researchers have noted a sharp increase in the number of publications about Russians killed in combat. In recent weeks, the totals are much higher than those seen for the same period in 2022 and 2023.

DeepState has reported on yet another summary execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war — Russian forces killed nine Ukrainian POWs on Oct. 10 in the Kursk Region near Zeleny Shlyakh. Those killed were allegedly UAV operators. In addition, the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine asserts that Russian soldiers shot dead a wounded AFU fighter near Bakhmut. The prosecutors report that the Ukrainian officer was killed while unarmed and lying on the ground.

OSINT analyst Naalsio has updated data on visually confirmed losses of military equipment in the Kursk Region. In the period from Oct. 7 to Oct. 15, 20 units of Ukrainian equipment and 26 units of Russian equipment were added to the list. As Russia’s counteroffensive continues to unfold, the weekly losses of the Russian Armed Forces have exceeded Ukrainian equipment losses for the first time. Over the course of the entire operation in the region, the AFU has lost 251 vehicles, while the Russian Armed Forces lost 181.

Weapons and military vehicles

Australia will transfer 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and replace them with the more modern M1A2s in its own arsenal. Germany has delivered another eight Leopard 1A5 tanks, and the list of completed deliveries also includes 20 Marder armored personnel carriers, six PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, reconnaissance drones, and artillery rounds.

The United States has allocated a new $425 million military aid package to Ukraine under PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority for Military Assistance). The package includes mostly ammunition for artillery, air defense, and HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as anti-tank weapons. It has also been reported that the U.S. is behind schedule on increasing production of 155-mm artillery rounds: by the end of the year, American output is expected to reach 55,000 rounds per month instead of the previously planned 70,000-80,000.

In addition, there is a risk of further delays in the training of F-16 pilots, as Ukraine is using its more experienced pilots for ongoing combat missions while sending cadets to learn to operate the Western aircraft. At the same time, Greece has pledged to assist with the F-16 program, in particular the training of technical staff.

The U.S. also transferred a third battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, according to the list of military assistance provided. Thus, the AFU now has 10 anti-ballistic missile complexes in service, including eight Patriot and two SAMP/T systems.

Additionally, a few other countries have announced new military aid packages:

• Denmark — contents withheld
• France — the start of deliveries of French-designed kamikaze drones, which appear to be unreasonably expensive, has been announced
• The Netherlands — a joint contribution with Denmark to the purchase of ammunition under the “Czech initiative,” as well as the provision of self-propelled howitzers
• Canada — the package will include small arms, ammunition, and funds for the training of AFU servicemen.