Advancing 30 miles at the cost of 100,000 troops: Key figures from the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war

Over the past year, the BBC-Mediazona list of named casualties has grown by 51,000, suggesting that anywhere from 78,000 to 113,000 Russian soldiers were killed in combat in 2024 alone.

On the Ukrainian side, the UALosses project, which also tracks soldiers killed in action using open source data, has recorded over 70,000 confirmed fatalities and 56,000 soldiers listed as missing. Given the nature of the war, the “missing” category is made up mostly of soldiers who have been killed but whose bodies have not been recovered from the battlefield. This suggests that Ukrainian military deaths likely exceed 120,000.

Determining Ukraine’s annual combat losses is more difficult, as UALosses initially tracked only confirmed fatalities. However, between March 11, 2024, and Feb. 24, 2025, the list of named Ukrainian war dead grew by 25,000.

Based on these figures, the total minimum estimate of combined Russian and Ukrainian combat deaths in the past year is between 100,000 and 110,000.

Notably, up to one-third of Russia’s known casualties are prison inmates, and around 20% are from the “DPR” and “LPR.” This means that roughly half of all of Russia’s war dead were not fully integrated into Russian society before the war. Their deaths have had little impact on public sentiment, as most high-income urban residents in Russia remain largely insulated from the war’s human costs.

Public involvement: 80% in Ukraine vs. 30% in Russia

Sociological surveys — despite their limitations — indicate that Russians remain minimally involved in the war.

According to independent polls carried out by the Chronicles project in September 2024, only 2% of respondents in Russia had personally participated in combat, while 28% said a relative had fought or was still fighting.

A Russian Field survey found that 9% of respondents had close relatives involved in the war, and that 1% were engaged in military-related volunteer work.

Since the war had not significantly affected Russian territory until August 2024, the number of Russian civilians directly impacted by the conflict remained relatively low.

By contrast, a similar Ukrainian survey conducted in May-June 2023 found that 78% of respondents had a friend or relative who had been killed or wounded in the war. Another survey, published in August 2024, indicated that more than 70% of Ukrainians had provided some form of assistance to the AFU. However, volunteer organizations have reported a noticeable decline in financial donations from civilians of late.

650,000 soldiers in the trenches

Russia’s troop grouping along the front line and in rear areas consists of between 580,000 and 617,000 personnel (1, 2). Experts note that despite significant challenges, the Russian military-political leadership has managed to sustain an army of over 600,000 troops for an extended period following the announcement of “partial” mobilization in late 2022. However, there are increasing signs that the recruitment rate is failing to compensate for mounting losses.